The Gambler's (non-) Fallacy
When the irrational might just be rational, take three
This is the third in a series on cognitive bias and rational irrationality. Read Part I here and Part II here.
In his 1997 Book How the Mind Works, Harvard University psychologist Steven Pinker1 recalls a memory from his teenage years. He was on vacation with his family and his dad remarked that they seemed to be due for some good weather. After all, it h…